SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Support and resistance is a concept in technical analysis that the movement of the price in financial market will tend to stop and reverse at certain predetermined price levels. Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.

SUPPORT

Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.



Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.

Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels. In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below support briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.

RESISTANCE

Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.

Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.

IDENTIFYING SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

Support and resistance levels can be identified by trend lines. Some traders believe in using pivot point calculations. The more often a support/resistance level is "tested" (touched and bounced off by price), the more significance given to that specific level. If a price breaks past a support level, that support level often becomes a new resistance level. The opposite is true as well, if price breaks a resistance level, it will often find support at that level in the future.






USING SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

Support and resistance are like mirror images and have many common characteristics :

Highs and Lows

Support can be established with the previous reaction lows. Resistance can be established by using the previous reaction highs.



The above chart for Halliburton (HAL) shows a large trading range between Dec-99 and Mar-00. Support was established with the October low around 33. In December, the stock returned to support in the mid-thirties and formed a low around 34. Finally, in February the stock again returned to the support scene and formed a low around 33 1/2.

After each bounce off support, the stock traded all the way up to resistance. Resistance was first established by the September support break at 42.5. After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level. From the October lows, the stock advanced to the new support-turned-resistance level around 42.5. When the stock failed to advance past 42.5, the resistance level was confirmed. The stock subsequently traded up to 42.5 two more times after that and failed to surpass resistance both times.

Support Equals Resistance

Another principle of technical analysis stipulates that support can turn into resistance and visa versa. Once the price breaks below a support level, the broken support level can turn into resistance. The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand. Therefore, if the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and hence resistance.

The other turn of the coin is resistance turning into support. As the price advances above resistance, it signals changes in supply and demand. The breakout above resistance proves that the forces of demand have overwhelmed the forces of supply. If the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in demand and support will be found.



In this example of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) the stock broke resistance at 935 in May-97 and traded just above this resistance level for over a month. The ability to remain above resistance established 935 as a new support level. The stock subsequently rose to 1150, but then fell back to test support at 935. After the second test of support at 935, this level is well established.



From the PeopleSoft (PSFT) example, we can see that support can turn into resistance and then back into support. PeopleSoft found support at 18 from Oct-98 to Jan-99 (green oval), but broke below support in Mar-99 as the bears overpowered the bulls. When the stock rebounded (red oval), there was still overhead supply at 18 and resistance was met from Jun-99 to Oct-99.

Where does this overhead supply come from? Demand was obviously increasing around 18 from Oct-98 to Mar-99 (green oval). Therefore, there were a lot of buyers in the stock around 18. When the price declined past 18 and to around 14, many of these buyers were probably still holding the stock. This left a supply overhang (commonly known as resistance) around 18. When the stock rebounded to 18, many of the green-oval-buyers (who bought around 18) probably took the opportunity to sell. When this supply was exhausted, the demand was able to overpower supply and advance above resistance at 18.

Trading Range

Trading ranges can play an important role in determining support and resistance as turning points or as continuation patterns. A trading range is a period of time when prices move within a relatively tight range. This signals that the forces of supply and demand are evenly balanced. When the price breaks out of the trading range, above or below, it signals that a winner has emerged. A break above is a victory for the bulls (demand) and a break below is a victory for the bears (supply).



After an extended advance from 27 to 64, WorldCom (WCOM) entered into a trading range between 55 and 63 for about 5 months. There was a false breakout in mid-June when the stock briefly poked its head above 62 (red oval). This did not last long and a gap down a few days later nullified the breakout (black arrow). The stock then proceeded to break support at 55 in Aug-99 and trade as low as 50. Here is another example of support turned resistance as the stock bounced off 55 two more times before heading lower. While this does not always happen, a return to the new resistance level offers a second chance for longs to get out and shorts to enter the fray.



In Nov/Dec-99, Lucent Technologies (LU) formed a trading range that resembled a head and shoulders pattern (red oval). When the stock broke support at 60, there was little or no time to exit. Even though the there is a long black candlestick indicating an open at 59, the stock fell so fast that it was impossible to exit above 44. In hindsight, the support line could have been drawn as an upward sloping neckline (blue line), and the support break would have come at 61. This is only 1 point higher and a trader would have had to take action immediately to avoid a sharp fall. However, the lows match up rather nicely on the neckline, and it is something to consider when drawing support lines.

After Lucent declined, a trading range was established between 40.5 and 47.5 for almost two months (green oval). The resistance level of the trading range was well marked by three reaction peaks at 47.5. The support level was not as clearly marked, but appeared to be between 40 and 41. Some buying interest began to become evident around 44 in mid- to late-February. Notice the array of candlesticks with long lower shadows, or hammers, as they are known. The stock then proceeded to form two up gaps on 24-Feb and 25-Feb, and finally closed above resistance at 48. This was a clear indication of demand winning out over supply. There were still two more opportunities (days) to get in on the action. On the third day after the breakout, the stock gapped up and moved above 56.

Support and Resistance Zones

Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case. Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.



Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL), we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the stock trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.

CONCLUSION

Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact support and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching an important support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.

When judging entry and exit investment timing using support or resistance levels it is important to choose a chart based on a price interval period that aligns with your trading strategy timeframe. Short term traders tend to use charts based on interval periods, such as 1 minute (i.e. the price of the security is plotted on the chart every 1 minute), with longer term traders using price charts based on hourly, daily, weekly or monthly interval periods. Typically traders use shorter term interval charts when making a final decisions on when to invest, such as the following example based on 1 week of historical data with price plotted every 15 minutes. In this example the early signs that the stock was coming out of a downtrend was when it started to form support at $30.48 and then started to form higher highs and higher lows signaling a change from negative to positive trending.

CHARTS

A chart is a visual representation of data, in which "the data are represented by symbols, can represent tabular numeric data, functions or some kinds of qualitative structures.

Charts are often used to ease understanding of large quantities of data and the relationships between parts of the data. Charts can usually be read more quickly than the raw data that they are produced from. They are used in a wide variety of fields, and can be created by hand (often on graph paper) or by computer using a charting application. Certain types of charts are more useful for presenting a given data set than others. For example, data that presents percentages in different groups (such as "satisfied, not satisfied, unsure") are often displayed in a pie chart, but may be more easily understood when presented in a horizontal bar chart. On the other hand, data that represents numbers that change over a period of time (such as "annual revenue from 1990 to 2000") might be best shown as a line chart.

A chart can take a large variety of forms; however there are common features that provide the chart with its ability to extract meaning from data. Typically a chart is graphical, containing very little text, since humans are generally able to infer meaning from pictures quicker than from text. One of the more important uses of text in a graph is in the title. A graph's title usually appears above the main graphic and provides a succinct description of what the data in the graph refers to.
A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame. In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots. On the chart, the y-axis (vertical axis) represents the price scale and the x-axis (horizontal axis) represents the time scale. Prices are plotted from left to right across the x-axis with the most recent plot being the furthest right. The price plot for IBM extends from January 1, 1999 to March 13, 2000.

Technicians, technical analysts and chartists use charts to analyze a wide array of securities and forecast future price movements. The word "securities" refers to any tradable financial instrument or quantifiable index such as stocks, bonds, commodities, futures or market indices. Any security with price data over a period of time can be used to form a chart for analysis.

While technical analysts use charts almost exclusively, the use of charts is not limited to just technical analysis. Because charts provide an easy-to-read graphical representation of a security's price movement over a specific period of time, they can also be of great benefit to fundamental analysts. A graphical historical record makes it easy to spot the effect of key events on a security's price, its performance over a period of time and whether it's trading near its highs, near its lows, or in between.



HOW TO PICK A TIME FRAME

The time frame used for forming a chart depends on the compression of the data: intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual data. The less compressed the data is, the more detail is displayed.



Daily data is made up of intraday data that has been compressed to show each day as a single data point, or period. Weekly data is made up of daily data that has been compressed to show each week as a single data point. The difference in detail can be seen with the daily and weekly chart comparison above. 100 data points (or periods) on the daily chart is equal to the last 5 months of the weekly chart, which is shown by the data marked in the rectangle. The more the data is compressed, the longer the time frame possible for displaying the data. If the chart can display 100 data points, a weekly chart will hold 100 weeks (almost 2 years). A daily chart that displays 100 days would represent about 5 months. There are about 20 trading days in a month and about 252 trading days in a year. The choice of data compression and time frame depends on the data available and your trading or investing style.

- Traders usually concentrate on charts made up of daily and intraday data to forecast short-term price movements. The shorter the time frame and the less compressed the data is, the more detail that is available. While long on detail, short-term charts can be volatile and contain a lot of noise. Large sudden price movements, wide high-low ranges and price gaps can affect volatility, which can distort the overall picture.

- Investors usually focus on weekly and monthly charts to spot long-term trends and forecast long-term price movements. Because long-term charts (typically 1-4 years) cover a longer time frame with compressed data, price movements do not appear as extreme and there is often less noise.

- Others might use a combination of long-term and short-term charts. Long-term charts are good for analyzing the large picture to get a broad perspective.

- of the historical price action. Once the general picture is analyzed, a daily chart can be used to zoom in on the last few months.

HOW ARE CHARTS TYPED ?

There are four common charts form : line, bar, candlestick and point & figure charts. Although there are other methods available, these are 4 of the most popular methods for displaying price data.

Line Chart

Some investors and traders consider the closing level to be more important than the open, high or low. By paying attention to only the close, intraday swings can be ignored. Line charts are also used when open, high and low data points are not available. Sometimes only closing data are available for certain indices, thinly traded stocks and intraday prices.



Bar Chart

Perhaps the most popular charting method is the bar chart. The high, low and close are required to form the price plot for each period of a bar chart. The high and low are represented by the top and bottom of the vertical bar and the close is the short horizontal line crossing the vertical bar. On a daily chart, each bar represents the high, low and close for a particular day. Weekly charts would have a bar for each week based on Friday's close and the high and low for that week.



Bar charts can also be displayed using the open, high, low and close. The only difference is the addition of the open price, which is displayed as a short horizontal line extending to the left of the bar. Whether or not a bar chart includes the open depends on the data available.








Bar charts can be effective for displaying a large amount of data. Using candlesticks, 200 data points can take up a lot of room and look cluttered. Line charts show less clutter, but do not offer as much detail (no high-low range). The individual bars that make up the bar chart are relatively skinny, which allows users the ability to fit more bars before the chart gets cluttered. If you are not interested in the opening price, bar charts are an ideal method for analyzing the close relative to the high and low. In addition, bar charts that include the open will tend to get cluttered quicker. If you are interested in the opening price, candlestick charts probably offer a better alternative.

Candlestick Chart

Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required. A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and low, and the close. A weekly candlestick is based on Monday's open, the weekly high-low range and Friday's close.









Many traders and investors believe that candlestick charts are easy to read, especially the relationship between the open and the close. White (clear) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the open and black (solid) candlesticks form when the close is lower than the open. The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are called shadows and represent the high and low.

Point & Figure Chart

The charting methods shown above, all, plot one data point for each period of time. No matter how much price movement, each day or week represented is one point, bar, or candlestick along the time scale. Even if the price is unchanged from day to day or week to week, a dot, bar, or candlestick is plotted to mark the price action. Contrary to this methodology, point & figure Charts are based solely on price movement, and do not take time into consideration. There is an x-axis but it does not extend evenly across the chart.



The beauty of point & figure charts is their simplicity. Little or no price movement is deemed irrelevant and therefore not duplicated on the chart. Only price movements that exceed specified levels are recorded. This focus on price movement makes it easier to identify support and resistance levels, bullish breakouts and bearish breakdowns.

Mr.FOREX Vs Mr.FUTURES

Liquidity

In the Forex market, $4 trillion is traded daily, making it the largest and most liquid market in the world. This market can absorb trading volume and transaction sizes that dwarf the capacity of any other market. The futures market trades a puny $30 billion per day. Thirty billion? Peanuts!

The futures markets can't compete with its relatively limited liquidity. The Forex market is always liquid, meaning positions can be liquidated and stop orders executed with little or no slippage except in extremely volatile market conditions.

24-Hour Market

At 5:00 pm EST Sunday, trading begins as markets open in Sydney. At 7:00 pm EST the Tokyo market opens, followed by London at 3:00 am EST. And finally, New York opens at 8:00 am EST and closes at 4:00 p.m. EST. Before New York trading closes, the Sydney market is back open - it's a 24-hour seamless market!

As a trader, this allows you to react to favorable or unfavorable news by trading immediately. If important data comes in from the United Kingdom or Japan while the U.S. futures market is closed, the next day's opening could be a wild ride. (Overnight markets in futures currency contracts exist, but they are thinly traded, not very liquid, and are difficult for the average investor to access.)

Minimal or no commissions

With Electronic Communications Brokers becoming more popular and prevalent over the past couple of years, there is the chance that a broker may require you to pay commissions. But really, the commission fees are peanuts compared to what you pay in the futures market. The competition among brokers is so fierce that you will most likely get the best quotes and very low transaction costs.

Price Certainty

When trading Forex, you get rapid execution and price certainty under normal market conditions. In contrast, the futures and equities markets do not offer price certainty or instant trade execution. Even with the advent of electronic trading and limited guarantees of execution speed, the prices for fills for futures and equities on market orders are far from certain. The prices quoted by brokers often represent the LAST trade, not necessarily the price for which the contract will be filled.

Guaranteed Limited Risk

Traders must have position limits for the purpose of risk management. This number is set relative to the money in a trader's account. Risk is minimized in the spot Forex market because the online capabilities of the trading platform will automatically generate a margin call if the required margin amount exceeds the available trading capital in your account.

During normal market conditions, all open positions will be closed immediately (during fast market conditions, your position could be closed beyond your stop loss level).

In the futures market, your position may be liquidated at a loss bigger than what you had in your account, and you will be liable for any resulting deficit in the account. That sucks.

Advantages	Forex	Futures
24-Hour Trading	YES	No
Minimal or no Commission	YES	No
Up to 500:1 Leverage	YES	No
Price Certainty	YES	No
Guaranteed Limited Risk	YES	No

Judging by the Forex vs. Futures Scorecard, Mr. Forex looks UNBEATABLE! Now meet the winners who trade the forex market.

Top 10 Investment Banks

Top 10 Investment Banks

Investment Banking is a form of banking which finances major capital requirements of a 
business enterprise. These capital requirements are in the form of financial help in launching
an Initial public offering (IPO) , Private Placement, Bonds and in the Merger and Acquisitions
and other services related to investment management , portfolio, Risk Management, FICC
services and equity securities and trading of derivatives. 

An Investment Bank provides all kinds of investment services and solutions to individuals,
corporates and governments. They create capital for their clients and provides best solutions and
strategies for Merger and Acquisitions and trading of securities , advice on risk management. One
of the major activity of modern banks is investment. Now a days both commercial and private
banks focused more on the investment banking sector.

JP Morgan Chase : It is one of the oldest financial services firm in the World and in U.S. 

It has global operations in 60 countries and a net asset of USD 2 trillion. It is world number

 one global investment bank. 

Morgan Stanley: it is a global financial services provider and serves to a diversified group 

of corporations, governments, financial institutions and individual. 

Goldman Sachs : Founded in 1869, It is one of the major global investment banking firm 

which services mainly institutional clients. It has strong client relationships with major 

corporations, governments. 

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch : It is one of the major financial services company in United

 States highly regarded for investment banking services. 

Deutsche Bank : It is a global financial services provider serving wide range of financial 

products and services including many investment management services. This Germany 

based company has a very strong financial discipline.

UBS : It is a European Bank based in Switzerland that provides major financial services 

that has a global operation in investment banking and wealth management solutions.

Credit Suisse : It is another European Bank based in Switzerland that provides major

financial services including investment banking, Asset management and private Banking.

Barclays Capital : It is one of the major investment banks in the world. It is the 25th largest

 company. It is European Bank based in United Kingdom that has global operations in 

investment banking and other financial services.

Citigroup : It is a major financial services company based in New York , United States. 

It has a global financial operation in investment banking and services.

Wells Fargo & Company is an American multinational banking and financial services holding

 company with operations around the world. Wells Fargo is the fourth largest bank in the 

U.S. by assets and the largest bank by market capitalization. Wells Fargo is the second

 largest bank in deposits, home mortgage servicing, and debit cards. In 2011, Wells Fargo 

was the 23rd largest company in the United States. Wells Fargo is headquartered in San 

Francisco, California, with "hubquarters" throughout the country.

The Eight Major Central Banks

U.S. Federal Reserve System (The Fed)

Structure - The Federal Reserve is probably the most influential central bank in the world. With the U.S. dollar being on the other side of approximately 90% of all currency transactions, the Fed's sway has a sweeping effect on the valuation of many currencies. The group within the Fed that decides on interest rates is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board plus five presidents of the 12 district reserve banks.
Mandate - Long-term price stability and sustainable growth
Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a year

European Central Bank (ECB)

Structure - The European Central Bank was established in 1999. The governing council of the ECB is the group that decides on changes to monetary policy. The council consists of the six members of the executive board of the ECB, plus the governors of all the national central banks from the 12 euro area countries. As a central bank, the ECB does not like surprises. Therefore, whenever it plans on making a change to interest rates, it will generally give the market ample notice by warning of an impending move through comments to the press. (Learn more in Why Interest Rates Matter For Forex Traders.)
Mandate - Price stability and sustainable growth. However, unlike the Fed, the ECB strives to maintain the annual growth in consumer prices below 2%. As an export dependent economy, the ECB also has a vested interest in preventing against excess strength in its currency because this poses a risk to its export market.
Frequency of Meeting - Bi-weekly, but policy decisions are generally only made at meetings where there is an accompanying press conference, and those happen 11 times a year.

Bank of England (BoE)

Structure - The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England is a nine-member committee consisting of a governor, two deputy governors, two executive directors and four outside experts. The BoE, under the leadership of Mark Carney, is frequently touted as one of the most effective central banks.
Mandate - To maintain monetary and financial stability. The BoE's monetary policy mandate is to keep prices stable and to maintain confidence in the currency. To accomplish this, the central bank has an inflation target of 2%. If prices breach that level, the central bank will look to curb inflation, while a level far below 2% will prompt the central bank to take measures to boost inflation.
Frequency of Meeting - Monthly

Bank of Japan (BoJ)

Structure - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee consists of the BoJ governor, two deputy governors and six other members. Because Japan is very dependent on exports, the BoJ has an even more active interest than the ECB does in preventing an excessively strong currency. The central bank has been known to come into the open market to artificially weaken its currency by selling it against U.S. dollars and euros. The BoJ is also extremely vocal when it feels concerned about excess currency volatility and strength.
Mandate - To maintain price stability and to ensure stability of the financial system, this makes inflation the central bank’s top focus 2%.
Frequency of Meeting - Once or twice a month

Swiss National Bank (SNB)

Structure - The Swiss National Bank has a three-person committee that makes decisions on interest rates. Unlike most other central banks, the SNB determines the interest rate band rather than a specific target rate. Like Japan and the euro zone, Switzerland is also very export dependent, which means that the SNB also does not have an interest in seeing its currency become too strong. Therefore, its general bias is to be more conservative with rate hikes.
Mandate - To ensure price stability while taking the economic situation into account
Frequency of Meeting - Quarterly

Bank of Canada (BoC)

Structure - Monetary policy decisions within the Bank of Canada are made by a consensus vote by Governing Council, which consists of the Bank of Canada governor, the senior deputy governor and four deputy governors.
Mandate - Maintaining the integrity and value of the currency. The central bank has an inflation target of 1-3%, and it has done a good job of keeping inflation within that band since 1998.
Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a year

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

Structure - The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy committee consists of the central bank governor, the deputy governor, the secretary to the treasurer and six independent members appointed by the government.
Mandate - To ensure stability of currency, maintenance of full employment and economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia. The central bank has an inflation target of 2-3% per year.
Frequency of Meeting - Eleven times a year, usually on the first Tuesday of each month (with the exception of January)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

Structure - Unlike other central banks, decision-making power on monetary policy ultimately rests with the central bank governor.
Mandate - To maintain price stability and to avoid instability in output, interest rates and exchange rates. The RBNZ has an inflation target of 1.5%. It focuses hard on this target, because failure to meet it could result in the dismissal of the governor of the RBNZ.
Frequency of Meeting - Eight times a year

ECB could set a negative deposit rate in Q1 2014; Real reason behind a potential “Dectaper”

Opinions | Written By Yohay Elam | Created: Nov 26, 2013 15:05 GMT; Last Modified: Nov 26, 2013 15:07 GMT 

Extracted from: www.forexcrunch.com

---

The rate cut was the least effective policy option that the European Central Bank had and the euro is now higher than before the cut, say Simon Smith of FxPro. So, a negative deposit rate could could be seen in the first quarter of 2014, and the impact could be strong.
In the interview below, Smith also explains what could push the Fed into action in December, the factors moving the yen and more.
Simon has over seventeen years experience of macro forecasting and investment strategy research. Prior to joining FxPro in May 2010, Simon was a consultant with Thomson Reuters, having spent four years as Chief Economist at Weavering Capital. He has held economic and strategy positions with Standard & Poor’s, together with consultancy firms 4Cast and MMS International. Simon holds an MSc. in Economics from the University of London and a BSc. from Brunel University.

1. Do you think that the ECB will leave policy unchanged in December after moving in November? Or could lower inflation figures (and a potential for even lower ones after the deal with Iran) push Draghi to further action?

I don’t see them moving again in December. They need to be both creative and bold in terms of their further policy measure(s) from here, not least because as I said before the event, the rate cut was the least effective option available to them.  On a trade weighted basis, the currency is now higher vs. the time of the rate cut, partly because the move in market interest rates was minimal at best.  I would see a move to a negative deposit rate in the first quarter, which would be a more negative move for the currency that this month’s rate cut.

2. Fed: how much weight does the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report have on the decision to taper or not to taper in December?

Of course, it’s pretty crucial given their dual mandate (prices and employment), together with the fact that forward guidance is linked to achieving an unemployment rate of 6.5%. But I think more important has been the successful separation that the Fed has achieved between quantitative easing and rate hikes. Back in early September, futures were pricing Fed rates near 1% by the middle of 2015.  Now it is 0.25%.  That’s a big change and comes despite the fact that some are now thinking tapering could be seen in December.  Markets are no longer spooked into thinking tapering means an imminent tightening of rates. This is more bearish for the dollar and equities, but not drastically dollar bearish, because lower stocks and outflows from emerging markets will still provide dollar support from the tapering decision. Another decent report could well see tapering in December, but it’s this separation that will have paved the way for the Fed to achieve this.

3. Will low inflation / deflation be an important theme in 2014?

Naturally it depends where you are. In the US, much of the weaker inflation has come from energy, so I would not see it as an issue. The same largely holds true for the UK.  The Eurozone, as a whole, is where the greater risks lie and the ECB have been pretty slow to realise this. Don’t forget it was only two years ago that the ECB were hiking rates.  Also, it’s the periphery where low inflation rates are more prominent, because with currency devaluation out of the question, then lower inflation relative to the core is one of the adjustment mechanisms by which these countries can become internally more competitive. The price also has to be higher inflation vs. Germany and higher absolute levels of inflation for Germany, but that is not something Germany is going to accept, for many reasons.  The key thing is that globally quantitative easing has not delivered the higher levels of inflation that many were both anticipating and fearing.

4. New Zealand enjoyed positive economic indicators and now has a lower exchange rate. Is the ground set for a rate hike sooner than later?

I’m not so sure. Data has been OK, but the economy is not running away and I think the exchange rate could play an important role in the early part of next year. The Aussie still looks vulnerable and the RBA is becoming more vocal and we are seeing AUDNZD at fresh lows for the year.  The risk is that a stronger currency does the tightening for the RBNZ, allowing rates to remain on hold for the first half of the year.

5. The yen resumed its falls due to various reasons. What factors will have the strongest impact on further weakening of the Japanese currency: the Nikkei, QE tapering, safe haven related moves, etc.?

There is a lot of talk about the yen resuming its weakening trend and on the charts, we’ve certainly broken through some key levels on USDJPY.  After the Fed’s move to separate tapering from tightening, I am not seeing tapering as being massively dollar positive. That said, I do see USDJPY moving higher in the first quarter, but it’s not going to be anything like the moves were seeing in the same period a year ago. Inflation is falling short of expectation and progress on Abe’s third arrow of structural reforms is proving pretty weak.  The past twenty years in Japan has been littered with periods whereby politicians promise loads and deliver very little.  There is a real risk that Abenomics falls into that very full dustbin of disappointment.  That said, the introduction of the Nippon savings account and the weakened current account position do make the yen a structurally weaker currency that before, which is why I think the weakening trend will continue.